Telegram采集:The Week Ahead - GDP data dominates, China data dump, 2Q GDP updates, US inflation
The Statistics Department is also expected to release June’s industrial production index and manufacturing sales this week. (Chief statistician Mohd Uzir MahidinTelegram采集（www.tel8.vip）是一个Telegram群组分享平台。Telegram采集包括Telegram采集、Telegram群组索引、Telegram群组导航、新加坡Telegram群组、Telegram中文群组、Telegram群组（其他）、Telegram 美国 群组、Telegram群组爬虫、电报群 科学上网、小飞机 怎么 加 群、tg群等内容。Telegram采集为广大电报用户提供各种电报群组/电报频道/电报机器人导航服务。
GDP data dominates
ALL eyes will be on fresh gross domestic product (GDP) data release scheduled on Friday.
Bloomberg estimates Malaysia’s GDP for the second quarter (2Q) to grow by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects a 5.8% y-o-y expansion.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations, GDP is expected to be 4% in 2Q and 5.9% by the end of this quarter.
The Malaysian economy registered a growth of 5% in 1Q.
The Statistics Department is also expected to release June’s industrial production index and manufacturing sales this week.
China data dump
CHINA is expected to release a deluge of data this week including July trade data, consumer price index (CPI), production price index (PPI), M2 money supply and 1Y medium-term lending facility.
Bloomberg estimates China’s exports to grow 14.6% y-o-y from 17.9% y-o-y in June, imports to expand 4% y-o-y from 1% in June while trade surplus is likely at US$89bil (RM396bil) compared with US$97.94bil (RM435.9bil) in June.
ING said China exports likely expanded by around 15% y-o-y in July as shipments for the winter holiday season were sent out in advance to avoid port congestion issues.
Imports, on the other hand, should pick up moderately as domestic consumption recovers.,
CPI inflation is expected to rise gently in China while PPI inflation could slow to 5% y-o-y from 6% in June as raw material prices fell on slower real-estate construction activity, according to ING.
2Q GDP updates
SINGAPORE will release the final print for 2Q GDP on Thursday while the Philippines will announce its GDP data tomorrow.
Singapore’s economy grew 4.8% y-o-y in 2Q, according to advance estimates released by the Trade and Industry Ministry.
UOB estimates GDP growth should be revised slightly lower by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5% y-o-y, assuming construction and services growth stays largely unchanged at 3.8% y-o-y and 4.7% y-o-y respectively.
Bloomberg estimates the Philippines’ 2Q GDP to expand 8% y-o-y from 8.3% in 1Q.
According to ING, election-related spending will likely boost growth to 8.8% y-o-y, with household consumption getting an extra lift after mobility curbs were relaxed in March.
Improved growth prospects, coupled with the above-target inflation, point to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas staying hawkish for the rest of the year.
THE US inflation data will reveal how prices have fared as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy.
ING said the headline rate of CPI may rise just 0.2% month-on-month (m-o-m), which would be the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 and result in the annual rate of inflation slowing to 8.7% from 9.1%.